Bring a Trailer price trend from 1916

[nkaminar]

Sorry, should be from 2016. I don't see how to change the title

I put all the Model A's that were stock or mostly stock from Bring a Trailer in a spread sheet (104 Model A's). i included sold or the "bid to" price in the case where they did not sell because that is what the bidders were willing to pay for that vehicle. I did not include any hot rods, customs, speedsters, modified cars, or projects. Some of the cars may have been slightly modified, I did not go through all the descriptions.

I did a linear fit to the data. The graph is below and shows a general trend for increased prices. The linear fit may not be 100% correct but the trend is up. If anyone wants a copy of the spread sheet, please let me know.

The highest price car was a Panel Delivery sold on 1/5/22 for $36,714

The lowest price car was a coupe (mislabeled as a roadster) that was bid to $5,000 on 3/15/19.

[Randy in ca]

Originally Posted by nkaminar

.................The highest price car was a Panel Delivery sold on 1/5/22 for $36,714
The lowest price car was a coupe (mislabeled as a roadster) that was bid to $5,000 on 3/15/19.

The highest price plotted on the chart appears to be about $45K (?)


-

[GeneBob]

NKaminar,
That is a lot of work, thank you for spending your time to do this. Interesting to see the trend. I wonder if your trend line keeps up with inflation?
Quick and dirty; let's guess about $14k to $23k. That's about 64% increase in 6 years. Again, quick and dirty calculation says almost 9% per year. That beats inflation.
Pretty cool!

[alexiskai]

I removed the highest and lowest sales, plus the two earliest sales when there wasn’t a mature market, and mapped a moving average. Notice the crash in prices in early 2022.

[alexiskai]

To me, this looks like a stimulus or boredom-fueled spending bubble, followed by a return to historical normal pricing. I don't think a linear fit is very helpful over this period.

[nkaminar]

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Thank you all for your inputs. Remember that this includes all types and conditions of cars and trucks. Let me know if you want the data and you can do your own analysis. For instance, just roadsters.

I went back and checked and the highest price was for a 1930 Woody Wagon, $45,000 on 4/31/21. (sorry Randy) Alexiskia is correct to remove the early and highest prices.

[WHN]

Nice job!

Interesting to look at.

Enjoy.

[Chuck Dempsey]

Very interesting, indeed. Thanks!

[GeneBob]

I think Alexiskai shows a more accurate reading in his moving average BUT if you look at the most recent numbers it looks to me like the prices are recovering from late last year/early this year. So, I think, there is still some good news hiding in the data.
Of course, the reality is we love these old cars even if they are not tracking with the Barrett-Jackson auction insanity.

[BRENT in 10-uh-C]

Does this trend include street rods or just restored vehicles??

[Jeff/Illinois]

Thank you for doing this, I thought it was very interesting
Lot of work!

I have been noticing prices being pretty strong for Model A Fords around here. I was at a farm sale on June 5th this past summer. There was a '29 Tudor and a '30 Coupe, both in pretty nasty shape. Non running cars. Along with a '66 LeMans convt. It was pretty ratty too.

But the point of my story is, there were a LOT of trucks with car haulers parked in the hay field they were using for parking. People were there to buy antique cars and the bidding on the Model A's was hot and heavy. The Coupe went for 7500 and the Tudor was 9000 as I recall. I thought that was very strong money for both cars. Didn't stay for the Pontiac! It was real hot that day.

Another estate auction in August, they sold a '30 Coupe, running but rough about a 3- car, and a '30 Tudor same condition. Coupe went for 9500 Tudor sold for 11 grand. A REAL junky '65 Impala convt. not running needed total restoration sold for $20,000. 283 car not what I would consider desirable. bench seat Powerglide.

I wouldn't have wanted any them as a gift but at least two people sure did.

[nkaminar]

Brent, Go back and re-read post #1. I won't say the cars and trucks are restored. Some are obviously not. I tried to stick to more or less stock Model A's. Some have 16-inch wheels or bodies that are not original.

[ronn]

also a few rare ones in the mix, as in two A 400s last year, so maybe a little skewed.....

interesting to see. thanks

[BRENT in 10-uh-C]

Originally Posted by nkaminar

Brent, Go back and re-read post #1. I won't say the cars and trucks are restored. Some are obviously not. I tried to stick to more or less stock Model A's. Some have 16-inch wheels or bodies that are not original.

I understand, ...and to expound on this I think that often times vehicles are purchased for reasons that are not clear, -or do not make sense to us. Kinda like in the restaurant business when someone can go purchase a $60 steak meal whereas someone else will purchase a cheap $12 steak dinner at one of those all-nite buffets. Both persons are likely not going to see the value in the other person's meal, yet both meals accomplished the main purpose which was to satisfy both person's hunger. I think the BaT format is a fad that the upscale buyer feels more comfortable with the quality of the pictures and the verbiage of the advertisement much akin to two identical vehicles being sold in different manner, -one being sold by an individual at their home vs. the other vehicle being sold in a dealership setting. Both vehicles should be worth the same exact amount however the one typically sold thru a dealership sells for more money yet at that same time is still perceived as a value at the higher price by the purchaser. So I am unsure what we learn from this.

[alexiskai]

Originally Posted by BRENT in 10-uh-C

I am unsure what we learn from this.

What you've got is data over time on a set of transactions where the unit doesn't repeat exactly, but neither are you seeing the full spectrum of cars in every conceivable state that you would see in a Facebook swap forum. Cars sold on BaT tend to present well, even if they're not stock. So if you assume that the type of car sold there is remaining constant over time, then this time series would give you information about fluctuations in the value of those cars, e.g., the same car would have sold for more in 2021 than in 2019. OTOH, if you think that the kind of car offered on BaT changes over time, then this data's pretty worthless.

[WHN]

As I have said earlier, this is interesting information.

However, a car is only worth what someone is interested in paying you for it. There are really to many Model A’s out there. All in different states of repair/condition.

If I go to a car show, and there are ten Model A’s. I don’t think that even two will be in a similar state of repair/condition. Most have just been owned by to many people. Each new owner, doing their thing to fix the car up.

Now two cars coming out of the same restoration shop. Both restored to the same level. That could be a different thing. Here you might be able to set a market price that means something.

Enjoy.

[BRENT in 10-uh-C]

Originally Posted by alexiskai

What you've got is data over time on a set of transactions where the unit doesn't repeat exactly, but neither are you seeing the full spectrum of cars in every conceivable state that you would see in a Facebook swap forum. Cars sold on BaT tend to present well, even if they're not stock. So if you assume that the type of car sold there is remaining constant over time, then this time series would give you information about fluctuations in the value of those cars, e.g., the same car would have sold for more in 2021 than in 2019. OTOH, if you think that the kind of car offered on BaT changes over time, then this data's pretty worthless.

The thing I have noticed is what is desirable by one group of people often changes just the weather. I'm not sure these trends accurately reflect this. For example, a Hudson is typically not a vehicle that brings strong money, ...except when one was featured in Driving Miss Daisy at the movies. You could not touch a Hudson Commodore for any amount when the movie was released. Then they cooled off but every now and then you will see a surge in prices that likely can be attributed to the Hallmark Channel re-running the movie again.

Originally Posted by WHN

As I have said earlier, this is interesting information.

However, a car is only worth what someone is interested in paying you for it. There are really to many Model A’s out there. All in different states of repair/condition.

If I go to a car show, and there are ten Model A’s. I don’t think that even two will be in a similar state of repair/condition. Most have just been owned by to many people. Each new owner, doing their thing to fix the car up.

Now two cars coming out of the same restoration shop. Both restored to the same level. That could be a different thing. Here you might be able to set a market price that means something.

Enjoy.

True, ...but what establishes what someone feels it is worth to them??

[ronn]

well this is one set of data. Another might be sales on ebay, which is what I use.

ebay has projects to show winners, so maybe a bit more diverse in pricing and quality.

in the end, the more info you have, the easier it is to understand pricing of a certain time period, for a certain quality of cars.

for example, Vincent motorcycles could be bought 3 yrs ago on BAT for under 50k. Today
60k is more the norm........ so there is the trend.

unless dealing with very rare model As, it isnt all that difficult to pinpoint an approx value
as to market, on a car.

[BillCNC]

Diving further into accuracy - break it down to body styles.

Regards
Bill

[aermotor]

Originally Posted by nkaminar

Sorry, should be from 2016. I don't see how to change the title

I put all the Model A's that were stock or mostly stock from Bring a Trailer in a spread sheet (104 Model A's). i included sold or the "bid to" price in the case where they did not sell because that is what the bidders were willing to pay for that vehicle. I did not include any hot rods, customs, speedsters, modified cars, or projects. Some of the cars may have been slightly modified, I did not go through all the descriptions.

I did a linear fit to the data. The graph is below and shows a general trend for increased prices. The linear fit may not be 100% correct but the trend is up. If anyone wants a copy of the spread sheet, please let me know.

The highest price car was a Panel Delivery sold on 1/5/22 for $36,714

The lowest price car was a coupe (mislabeled as a roadster) that was bid to $5,000 on 3/15/19.

I think Neil did an excellent job. The survey was Model A vehicles, period.
Start breaking down further would be pretty much futile. The line has to be drawn somewhere before getting down to wheel color. I am sure no two cars in the survey were exactly the same, at least this is a starting point, now it is what someone will pay and what someone will sell for.

[ronn]

the problem with putting tudors coupes sedans and pickups with the rarer models is you skew prices to the high side.

doesnt work. 90% of us have the common models

[nkaminar]

Anyone is welcome to the data and they can use it anyway they want. For instance, just including roadsters or coupes or Tudors, etc. Just send me a PM with your email address. I have the data in Numbers and Excel format.

The advantage of Bring A Trailer is that the selling price and bid-to price are published and easily accessible.

[alexiskai]

Tudors, fordors, coupes, and CC pickups only.

[ronn]

very cool Alex, nice work.

so what caused the drop in early 2022? gas prices or something else?

[alexiskai]

In early 2020, the U.S. personal savings rate shot up as pandemic stimulus programs dumped huge amounts of cash into the pockets of practically everyone. This gave people a lot more disposable income, which they could use to buy things like antique cars. More people buying cars, but not more cars on the market, caused the price of cars to increase. By mid-2021, stimulus funds ran out, and the savings rate gradually dropped to more normal historical levels, so people no longer had a lot of cash to spend on cars and the price of cars went back down.

Though I will say, it's hard to disentangle this from the possibility that it was just a supply glut. That's what, 12 cars sold in just a month or two? I think everyone saw the prices that were being fetched and got on the bandwagon.

[ronn]

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couple of driver cars on there now..... I suspect they will bring the price trend down.


dont bring me down, Bruce.........